Week 33
AlbionDesign GmbH week 33/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.0168 ↗ $/₽ 60.85 ↗ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar
EUA Dec 22 €92.96 ↗ API 2 Front month $356.00 ↗
Gas in Europe is about 10 times its usual cost, and it will take its toll on several sectors of the economy. More concerning than the outright cost is the daily volatility. If you´re not exposed to gas, just sit back and watch.
The artery of Europe´s industry, the Rhine, is perilously low, adding real costs to inland transport.
Freight on the other hand has shown some weakness from Baltic coasters to Pacific supramaxes.
Overview:
· Inflation has yet to affect a strong jobs market in the USA
· Residential pellet market stocks are unprepared for winter. Pellet heating demand is still increasing
· Expect policies surrounding sustainability and traceability to be as volatile as pricing
Demand:
· Nothing less than a big recession will dent demand. Demand destruction has yet to be seen.
· Increasing demand on pellets is a big strain on current capacity. Chips are available if you pay.
· Lack of rented storage and underdeveloped pellet logistics chains hamper increased consumption currently
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA ↘ on week 30 €28/29 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ on week 30. $40/41 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster <-> on week 30. $50/53
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 30. About $18k on a 4 month time charter. Panamax and larger coming off highs
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet - European Production: flat €250+
· Non-sanctioned Russian origin Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med €175/185
· SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ on week 30 Industrial quality & volume $375
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock €420
· Certified PKS FOB Indo/Malay flat $154
· Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €82/€85
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://www.ft.com/content/64e9bbdd-e3ec-4044-81d3-adb5d0eda6e9
· https://www.montelnews.com/news/1343356/norsk-hydro-shuts-output-at-24-twh-slovakian-smelter
· https://danubeportal.com/waterLevel
· https://www.baltpool.eu/medienos-birza/medienos-produktu-kainos/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
