Week 30

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 30/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.01334 ↘                 $/₽ 60.34 ↗ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar

EUA Dec 22 €76.70 ↘     API 2 Front month $356.00  ↗

At a time when there is a scarcity of fuels across the board, along comes the EU commission to makes people’s job even more complex. - Prepare for RED II. Recession coming or not, Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus pumped out a lot of fuel. Starting very soon Europe says paka to Russian coal. Wood is gone. Sunflower is...depends on the buyer and then there is gas. If feedstock and costs keep rising should we expect a lull in pricing – rhetorical question.

Overview:

·         Prepare for 15% less gas, depending on sector. Ferts, most likely excluded. Expect more exemptions to come

·         N. American wood pellet delays continue. Baltic prices go wild. Portugal is Portugal and SE Asia isn’t certified.

·         Non- EU material (if compliant) offers value if you are charter a vessel and store. Otherwise pay a trader €20 for the privilege.  

Demand:

·         The calorific arb remains open on biomass vs coal + EUA. Demand is correspondingly strong

·         EU demand for SE Asian material is slightly groundless and misunderstood. Unlikely in huge volumes

·         The big buyers are on the sidelines comfortable or quietly panicking. There is demand but where is supply?

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  <-> on week 29 €29/30 on 3kt                           

·         Black Sea Coaster  ↘ on week  29. $44/47 on 3kt                                

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster  <-> on week 29. $47/51                                

·          Handys/Supras  ↘  on week 29.                 About $18k on a 4 month time charter. Panamax and larger coming off highs                                                           

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk Pellet - European Production: flat  €250+

·         Non-sanctioned Russian origin Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med     €175/185

·         SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA:  ↗ on week 29      Industrial quality & volume  $355                                     

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock  €400

·         Certified PKS FOB Indo/Malay flat  $154

·         Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat to higher €80/€82

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.ft.com/content/d3e1655f-4547-4ba8-88d1-5e6b948cf825

·         https://www.ft.com/content/2cc9e478-2594-4254-9fe0-d7a5efd686fe

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-dips-to-2-week-low-as-all-segments-slip/

·         https://danubeportal.com/waterLevel

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.