Week 24 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 24/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.08176                       ↗                                    API 2 Front month $114.73    ↗

EUA DEC 23 €93.32          ↗                                          EUA DEC 24 €97.72                    ↗

Tail wagging dog? And we’re up across the board this week on higher gas and coal (moving CO2 higher). Dry weather forecasts in Scandinavia means potentially less cheap hydro, so fossil fuels up. Over in the UK, Uniper got a much needed hand in the form of burning coal again for the first time in over 46 days, due to hot weather.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: flat to lower , €105

                   Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘: €130/135

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  flat  on week 23 $180                 

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic flat on week 23 €195+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat  €120/€124

·                     Baltpool Woodchips Lithuania  €22.95/MWh ↘ Latvia/MWh €26.39 ↗ Estonia €11.86/MWh ↘  

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat  on week 23 €19/20 on 3kt                         

·                     Black Sea Coaster  flat on week 23 $22/21.5 on 3kt                            

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↗ on week 23 $34/38 on 3kt                      

·                      Handys/Supras  slightly lower on week 23.                                                                           

Overview:

·                     China is not impressing with economic releases

·                     Moves are driven by weather currently. It is abnormally hot in many places causing power demand to spike

·                     Main shipping markets are quite flat apart from Azov/Rivers – a lot of volatility on Russian coaters

Demand:

·                     Personally, optimistic about demand in the near-ish term. Less bullish on prices for industrial vs residential

·                     Purchasing patterns are changing as local markets adapt to overly dry or overly wet farm conditions

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1505010/german-power-forwards-hit-multi-month-highs-on-co2-gas

·         https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/13/why-did-national-grid-use-coal-to-meet-surge-in-electricity-demand

·         https://splash247.com/unprecedented-drought-forces-changes-along-the-panama-canal/

·         https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/20104/report-wood-pellet-production-grows-in-spain

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.