Week 23 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 23/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.06895                       ↘                                         API 2 Front month $105.00    ↗ 

EUA DEC 23 €81.64          ↘                                          EUA DEC 24 €85.75                    ↘

Gas markets are causing some real headaches, at the moment. China is not coming through as promised on increased coal, iron, gas, etc demand and the market is reacting accordingly. Prices are jumping around like a fish out of water. The weather is keeping power traders guessing: is the rain in Spain enough this Spring? Will Italian hydro reserves fill up during this wet Spring to compensate for lack of winter snowfall?

Coal demand seems so poor that Europe is reexporting stocks to wherever will take it – Morocco, India, you name it.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: flat to lower , €105+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘: €130/135

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  flat  on week 22 $180                 

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic flat on week 22 €195+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat  €120/€124

·                     Baltpool Woodchips Lithuania  €22.97/MWh ↗  Latvia/MWh €23.90 ↘ Estonia €11.99/MWh ↘  

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  ↘:  on week 22 €18.5/19.5 on 3kt                   

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↘: on week 22 $22/21.5 on 3kt                              

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↘: on week 22 $33/37 on 3kt                    

·                      Handys/Supras  slightly lower on week 22.                                                                           

Overview:

·                     Coal is cheap, petcoke is really cheap, gas is cheap, demand is fairly weak across the board

·                     Drought in Panama is forcing shipping to adjust significantly

·                     Coasters are getting close to their historical averages while Supramaxes are the lowest since February.

Demand:

·                     In certain pockets, in certain industries there is demand. Helicopter view looks weak

·                     More rumour than anything else, but many expect a quiet summer and an more lively market in September.

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1503509/europes-coal-burn-falls-25-month-on-month-in-may--dbx-

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1503422/big-german-industry-polluters-disappoint-in-emission-cuts

·         https://splash247.com/unprecedented-drought-forces-changes-along-the-panama-canal/

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.