Week 19

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 19/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.0544 ↗                    $/₽ 69.09 ↗    black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar

EUA Dec 22 €86.93 ↘     API 2 Front month $290.00  ↗

Look out fossil fuels – currently the EU is thinking of allowing wind and solar projects without an environmental impact assessment. As expected, GazProm has inadvertently accelerated Europe’s renewables sector – spasiba.  

Enviva released their q1 financials: busy signing away new contracts + losing more money on ever greater volumes.

With most long term contracts firmly in the Red from the production side, something must happen to keep these producers afloat. Diesel & labour have skyrocketed. The 1% escalator typical in contracts looks weak.

Overview:

·         News is LNG looks tight going into the Winter.

·         How does a Chinese slowdown affect biomass and energy in general? Is this the new elephant in the room?

·         Interestingly, glass made from green H2 is of lower quality than from other fuels.  

·         Everything that burns costs more this week. Same can be said in in week 19.  

Demand:

·         After a few conferences these past weeks, judging by sentiment: demand will not be satisfied.

·         Incremental new growth continues unabated in markets that traditionally didn’t use biomass.

Freight:

·         Baltic Coaster – ARA   flat week 18. €38/39 on 3kt                            

·         Black Sea Coaster  ↗ on week  18. $50/52 on 3kt              

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↘ on week 18  +- $50-65+                            caution: Numbers are very volatile

·         Handys/Supras  ↗ on week 18.                   While the Baltic Indices are pushing higher it’s mainly larger vessels                                 

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €240+

·         Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €137/tonne             

·         Wood pellet CIF ARA:  ↗  higher on week 18      Industrial quality and volume  $335                                           

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €275+

·         PKS FOB Indo/Malay  ↗ $142

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf

·         http://www.biomassmagazine.com/articles/18967/report-describes-changes-to-dutch-governmentundefineds-policy-on-biomass

·         https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/requests-russian-gas-via-key-ukraine-transit-point-fall-zero-data-shows-2022-05-11/

·         https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/blow-for-green-glass-hydrogen-reduces-product-quality-when-replacing-natural-gas-pilot-finds/2-1-1216468

·         https://www.ft.com/content/870d9b43-f4c1-4b8d-a1ec-384de654120c

·         http://www.biomassmagazine.com/articles/18962/enviva-reports-q1-challenges-accelerates-capacity-expansions

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.