Week 18
AlbionDesign GmbH week 18/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.0515 ↘ $/₽ 67.85 ↘ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar
EUA Dec 22 €88.23 ↗ API 2 Front month $280.00 ↘
It has been a long time since a volume crossed the Atlantic on a new contract, so the numbers below are a guess at FOB Baltic + freight. There are no free volumes in N. America.
Overview:
· Market participants see the coming heating season on higher levels than ever tested.
· Market very divided by those that see fuel going to the moon and others that see prices are already too high
· Wage inflation and diesel costs are ones to watch. Production costs are rising. OPEX has changed.
· Everything that burns costs more this week. Same can be said in in week 18.
Demand:
· Demand continues to outweigh supplies. Talk of more alternatives use but few pulling the trigger, just yet
· Incremental new growth continues unabated in markets that traditionally didn’t use biomass.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA↘flat week 17. €38/39 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↗ on week 17. $44/46
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 17 +- $60-65+ caution: Numbersare very volatile
· Handys/Supras ↗ on week 17. About 2% higher on the geared vessels
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €238+
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €137/tonne
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 17 Industrial quality and volume $330
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €275+
· PKS FOB Indo/Malay ↗ $140
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://www.ft.com/content/5c0f16b0-5f27-4d09-854e-f860b2f095ae
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-snaps-13-session-losing-streak-as-panamax-gains/
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
