Week 04 2024

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 04/2024

Economically Ecological                               

€/$                        :   1.08861                         API 2 Front month       $105.9                         TTF Front month      €29.015

EUA DEC 24         :   €65.74             EUA DEC 25                  €68.17                          TTF Q2                     €29.730

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Large vessels have little support. EU Coasters are finding homes where spot demand exists.

 Prices:  

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production:      € Black Sea -€5

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med      $

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet FOB Baltic  €

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA                               $ deals to be had as demand is rock bottom                   

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic                            €

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia              $                    -US5$ on tenera

·                     Spent olive wastes FCA Spain                        €

·                     Baltpool Woodchips - :Lithuania €22.09/MWh :Latvia €24.30/MWh :Estonia €20.63/MWh

Freight:

·                     Baltic Coaster – ARA :                 €on 3/4kt  

·                     Black Sea Coaster :                      $on 3/4kt                                   

·                     Azov-Marmara :                           $on 3/4kt                 

·                     Handys/Supras :                    roughly $k per day                                                     

Overview:

·                     The cold is keeping residential pellets flat, at best

·                     Spot buying, managing storage, and trying to guess the future is what keeps people busy.  

Demand:

·                     A coaster here or there, a barge, some rail. Incremental biomass from coal substitution. Spot demand.

·                     Asian biomass once looked like a vague possibility into EU. Falling Atlantic prices and the Red Sea don’t help

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1536036/eu-energy-crisis-is-over-as-geopolitical-risk-wanes--repsol--

·         https://www.commoditiesdemystified.info/pdf/CommoditiesDemystified-section-b-en.pdf

·         https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/23/china-strategist-warns-of-deflation-and-rock-bottom-consumer-confidence.html

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-rises-on-higher-freight-activity-fewer-ships/

·         https://www.ft.com/content/f76573b4-db17-49b4-94d3-64dcef55b91e

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.