Week 26
AlbionDesign GmbH week 26/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.0441 ↘ $/₽ 53.40 ↘ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar
EUA Dec 22 €88.05 ↗ API 2 Front month $355.00 ↗
While temperatures are topping 40°c in Italy and reaching historic highs across parts of Europe, biomass for heating markets keeps going up, contrary to every previous year. Biomass, across the board is heading higher with the EUA, natgas (ex NBP) and coal making biomass the cheapest kcal.
Russia has shown that it has no intention of changing their narrative in Ukraine. It is hard to see how prices of energy commodities are going to drop soon. Inflation is global and whether it’s new biomass demand, or continued demand for fibre from competing industries, nothing short of a recession will affect the balance.
Overview:
· The gas question in Europe is headline grabbing. Uniper might need a bailout and Russia is playing games.
· Everyone is bringing on coal in central Europe. If coal looks attractive now, how does it look when there is another 15 million tonne demand?
Demand:
· Demand is hampered by paperwork and uncertainty on sustainability, currently.
· With biomass extending its spread vs coal more industries, higher up the value chain, explore biomass
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster – ARA ↘ on week 25 €32/32on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster ↘ on week 25. $55/57 on 3kt
· Azov-Marmara Coaster flat on week 25. $40/45
· Handys/Supras ↘ on week 25. About $22k on a 4 month time charter. Panamax and larger coming off highs
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €250+
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 25 Industrial quality & volume $350
· Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €315
· PKS FOB Indo/Malay ↘ $152
Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Links and interesting reading:
· https://energynews.us/newsletter/world-leaders-backtrack-on-pledge-to-stop-fossil-fuel-financing/
· https://www.ft.com/content/8edef067-f4d8-4cc8-8265-965676c00095
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
