Week 24

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 24/2022

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.0455 ↘                    $/₽ 56.76 ↘ black market rate between 100-115 Rubles to the Dollar

EUA Dec 22 €83.75 ↗     API 2 Front month $305.00  ↗

Right when US LNG was coming to save the day a fire breaks out in Texas. Poor timing but should be back for winter.

More gas news: NordStream 1 is down significantly on required maintenance. Lucky it seems Israel might help.

None of this is helping to bring down the forward power curve meaning everything is up: gas, power, coal, EUA..

Behind the headlines buyers of fuel are just securing what they can to keep their businesses running as usual.

Overview:

·         Gas is all over the place. Storage brimming, next NS 1 and Freeport have issues.

·         Cement had a great 2021. 2022 is unlikely to be a repeat with consumer inflation and energy costs weighing

·         Chinese news was always murky: demand up or down. Covid restrictions or not? I cannot keep up on the demand forecast and constant rumours about demand destruction lockdowns vs revenge consumption

Demand:

·         With no let up in companies going greener, the pressure on the, already strained, supply chain continues

·         Today’s FT says it all. US Diesel prices up 75% in a year. Suppliers are struggling to make ends meet

·         New demand from heavy industry will be driven by how they see consumer sentiment affected by inflation

Freight:

·          Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat  on week 23 €33/34 on 3kt                         

·         Black Sea Coaster  flat on week  23. $64/66 on 3kt                              

·         Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↗ on week 23. $38/39                                   

·          Handys/Supras  ↘  on week 23.                 About $26k on a 4 month time charter                                                 

 Prices:                                                                                                                

·         Sunflower Husk European Production: ↗ FCA €248+

·         Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €143/tonne             

·         Wood pellet CIF ARA:  ↗  higher on week 21      Industrial quality & volume  $345                                               

·         Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €290+

·         PKS FOB Indo/Malay  ↗ $153

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://splash247.com/the-futility-of-sanctions/

·         https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Europes-Gas-Prices-Surge-13-As-Russia-Reduces-Nord-Stream-Flow.html

·         https://gcaptain.com/freeport-lng-gives-new-timeline-for-restarting-exports-from-gulf-coast-plant-hit-by-fire/

·         https://www.ft.com/content/75803c92-450f-41d2-a6a8-685b94a4c431

·         https://biomassmagazine.com/articles/19066/orsted-to-establish-ccs-projects-at-2-biomass-power-plants

·         https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/03/poles-told-to-gather-firewood-amid-soaring-energy-prices

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3818473-counting-barrels-russias-transneft-caps-production-kazakhstan-down-290kbdNumbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.