Week 18 2023

AlbionDesign GmbH                                                      week 18/2023

Economically Ecological                               

€/$ 1.10337                        ↗                                     API 2 Front month $132.03     ↗

EUA DEC 23 €88.57          ↗                                          EUA DEC 24 €92.53                    ↗

It feels like Japan has regained the attention of the market. While the TTF, German power, Nordic power, and pretty much everything else in Europe goes lower, news that PKS and wood pellets/chips will no longer have Japan to themselves, finally gives us something to talk about. The timing of the Tokyo conference could not be more serendipitous. In another twist of fate, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act makes the US look like the place to make renewable investments, with Europe looking like a less sure bet.

 Prices:

·                     Sunflower Husk Pellet - EU Production: ↘: €108+

·                     Russian Sunflower Husk Pellet CIF Med ↘: €135/140

·                     SBP Wood pellet CIF ARA  ↘  on week 17 $180                   

·                     Wood pellet A1 FOB Baltic ↘ on week 17 €186+

·                     Certified PKS (dura) FOB Indonesia Q2 flat $130

·                     Spent olive wastes ex Works Spain flat  €122/€126

·                     Baltpool Woodchips·   LT €23.14/MWh ↗: LV €24.40/MWh ↘ : EE €15.00/MWh ↘

Freight:

·                      Baltic Coaster – ARA  flat on week 17 €19.5/20.5 on 3kt                   

·                     Black Sea Coaster  ↘: on week 17 $25.5/26.5 on 3kt                          

·                     Azov-Marmara Coaster  ↘: on week 17 $44/47 on 3kt                    

·                      Handys/Supras  flat to slightly lower on week 17.                                                                              

Overview:

·                     Overall quiet with few actors willing to put money on the table for the coming months

·                     If you’re looking for volatility, try the UKR sunhusk market. In a week it can go from $40 to $120 ex works

Demand:

·                     Poland is burning but with most of the generation in the South, it’s coming from neighbours via truck

·                     While prices appear to be reverting to their historical mean, demand remains moribund.

Into ARA on the densified biomass deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.

Links and interesting reading:

·         https://expobiomasa.com/en/

·         https://www.cmtevents.com/eventschedule.aspx?ev=230501&

·         https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-index-falls-on-lower-vessel-demand-3/

·         https://www.ft.com/content/0557acef-29fe-4354-8ac0-df5890787454

·         https://www.montelnews.com/news/1497071/wet-summer-outlook-eases-europe-drought-fear--forecaster

Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.