Week 11
AlbionDesign GmbH week 11/2022
Economically Ecological
€/$ 1.099 ↘ $/₽ 109.0 ↘
EUA Dec 22 €76.07 ↗ API 2 Front month $345.00 ↘
Covid didn´t create work-from-home, it accelerated it. This heinous war didn´t create interest in renewable energy but it sure has expedited huge new interest in power generation closer to home, whether the technology is heat pumps, wind, PV etc. Odd how Russian exports are dominated by energy and Führer Putin´s insane decisions have done nothing but shorten the window of his own wealth creation. Truly, a pathetically myopic blunder.
Overview:
· N. American delays are shortening
· Pellet producers dependent on large amounts of electricity are counting the cost in certain areas
· High prices are not high margins for producers. With all inputs trending higher, it´s tough on everyone
· UK Heating markets are a dumping ground for Russian pellets. Replacement is needed ASAP
Demand:
· Material that burns is in demand. Wood, PKS, olive wastes, etc as well as renewed interest in coal.
· Demand is very high but mid to long term are we 2 steps from a recession? Merit order of fuels in case of drop in demand.
Freight:
· Baltic Coaster - ARA <-> flat week, possibly down on week 10. €39/40 on 3kt
· Black Sea Coaster MIXED on week 10 Rising rates out of Romanian and Bulgaria.
· Azov-Marmara Coaster ↘ on week 07 +- $33 Azov Marmara/E. Med $1 down on previous
· Handys/Supras ↗ on week 10. A lot of noise around how this war will affect rates among ship sizes
Prices:
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Baltic Sea: ↗ FOB €128 This is Russian volume. Unsure if it has become toxic
· Sunflower Husk Pellet Black Sea: CIF $161 SPOT
· Olive Wastes S. Spain FOB: ↗ €N.A. FOB Sfax €125/tonne I cannot find reliable prices in Spain attached to real volume
· Wood pellet CIF ARA: ↗ higher on week 10 massive spreads. Could be close to $300 on real volume
· Wood pellet FOB Baltic non Russian/Belarus feedstock ↗ €220
· PKS FOB Indo/Malay ↗ $120
Into ARA on the sunhusk deduct $1+- for every additional 1kt as there is a freight saving.
Black Sea – Greece/Italy expect larger savings for every additional 1kt
Links and interesting reading:
· https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/2c8378ab-c686-449d-9dd1-65371ab30889/Oilseeds-dashboard_en.pdf
· https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-conditions *Finnish Weather Service for Ice Reports
· https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/en-us/our-stories/article/ourstories.Russia-update.html
Numbers subject to change. These figures are indications and in no way a confirmation on tradable prices. For reference only.
